Intense hurricane season forecast

by Gill Montia

Story link: Intense hurricane season forecast

A leading scientist at Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the consortium comprising experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting, has detected a general trend toward stronger hurricanes.

Professor Mark Saunders has been instrumental in reinstating TSR’s previous forecast that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season would deliver activity about 35% above the long-term norm, which is calculated over the period 1950-2006.

The hurricane season is currently at its mid-point, when climatological activity is at its peak.

TSR’s latest outlook gives a 72% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting 15 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with three or four of these being intense hurricanes.

In terms of the US, it expects four tropical storm strikes, two of which will be hurricanes.

Despite two category five hurricanes (Dean and Felix) making landfall in the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, activity to date is still only about 20% above the long-term norm.

However, TSR anticipates a continuation and slight increase in above-norm activity during September and October.

According to Professor Saunders, “the main climate factors which determine how active an Atlantic hurricane season is are all favourable with the exception of the temperature of the sea waters between west Africa and the Caribbean which are slightly colder than normal.”